Entry 12: Doha Strike Represents a Strategic Earthquake the West Has Yet to Grasp
The Israeli strike on Doha was not just a military manoeuvre—it was a seismic shock to the region’s political foundations. Western analysts have yet to grasp how profoundly Arab and Iranian domestic politics have shifted. Beneath the surface of diplomatic summits and investment pledges lies a volatile mix: a politically awakened Arab street driven by deep religious conviction, tribal loyalties, and a rising middle class that is educated, ambitious, and in some cases fiercely nationalistic.
These forces are reshaping the unwritten social contract that has long defined governance in the region—where rulers provide security and prosperity in exchange for public loyalty. That balance is now under strain, and the West’s failure to recognise it risks misreading the entire strategic landscape.
Decades-Old Strategic Compact Shattered
On 9 September 2025, the Israeli Defence Forces launched a targeted airstrike in Doha, Qatar, aiming to eliminate senior Hamas leadership during a ceasefire negotiation hosted by the Qatari government. The attack, which killed six—including a Qatari security official—and injured several others, failed to eliminate its intended targets. But its real impact lies far beyond the tactical failure. It has shattered a decades-old strategic compact between the West and the Arab world and exposed a dangerous vacuum in regional diplomacy that Russia, China, and India are poised to exploit. Prince Turki al-Faisal's statements reflect a shift from passive diplomacy to more assertive moral and political positioning, which the US should not consider as simply sabre-rattling. While not an official government declaration, having served as ambassador to both the US and the UK as the former head of Saudi Intelligence, his words carry weight and may embolden other Arab leaders and intellectuals to push for coordinated action — whether through diplomatic pressure, economic leverage, or international forums.
The Post-War Bargain Unravels
Since the end of the Second World War, the implicit agreement between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has been simple: “provide us with oil and energy security, and we will provide you with military protection”. This arrangement underpinned the Pax Americana in the Middle East, allowing monarchies and republics alike to weather domestic unrest, regional wars, and economic shocks. But the Israeli strike on Doha—a GCC capital—marks the first direct military attack on a Gulf state by Israel. It is not just a breach of diplomatic norms; it is a rupture in the security architecture that has held the region together for generations. The failure of the US to stop the attack reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how the region operates and the systems of power and influence. Even during Trump’s visit to the Gulf, the US missed multiple subtle indications that it was fast losing power and influence—underlined by Iran’s presence at the Doha talks.
The Abraham Accords: A Mirage in the Desert?
President Donald Trump hailed the Abraham Accords as a diplomatic triumph, bringing Israel into formal relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Yet the Doha strike has made it painfully clear that Arab leaders are struggling to convince their populations that these agreements have delivered any tangible benefits.
The Arab Street—often dismissed by Western analysts as a rhetorical device—remains a potent force. For anyone who has lived or travelled in the region, public sentiment still acts as a critical counterweight to elite decision-making. The images of smoke rising over Doha have reignited anger across the region, from Cairo to Casablanca, and made it politically toxic for leaders to be seen as complicit or passive.
Domestic Pressures and Regional Realities
Arab leaders now face a dual challenge: managing domestic economic pressures while navigating an increasingly unstable regional landscape. In Egypt, public debt has exceeded 88% of GDP, leaving little room for fiscal manoeuvre. Tunisia and Lebanon teeter on the edge of default, while even oil-rich states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE face the long-term imperative of economic diversification.
The Israeli strike has added a new layer of complexity. Qatar, long seen as a mediator and stabiliser, now finds itself exposed. Its hosting of Hamas leaders was done at the behest of the United States, and its financial support for Gaza was coordinated with Israeli approval. The attack undermines not just Qatar’s role, but the entire logic of regional diplomacy. Prince Turki al-Faisal’s framing of the conflict as a humanitarian crisis and his insistence on accountability from Israel — not just Hamas — provides a platform for broader Arab coalescence into unified demands for justice and resolution
A Strategic Misstep with Global Implications
Netanyahu’s government has framed the strike as a necessary escalation in its war against Hamas. But the timing and location suggest a deeper strategic miscalculation. The attack occurred during a meeting to discuss a US-backed ceasefire proposal. It has jeopardised hostage negotiations, undermined Qatar’s role as a mediator, and triggered a diplomatic backlash that includes UN condemnation and a rare rebuke from the White House.
The fallout is already visible. The UAE has cancelled Israeli participation in the Dubai Airshow. YouTube channels have been allowed to broadcast highly critical analyses of Israel and its government. Saudi Arabia, which resisted US pressure to join the Abraham Accords, now feels vindicated—and domestically will feel the pressure to lead a decisive Arab response. Egypt, facing criticism for its role in Gaza, plays a crucial role alongside Jordan and has suspended a $400 million gas deal with Israel, further straining bilateral ties.
The Vacuum and the Opportunists
If the West is perceived to have abandoned its role as the region’s security guarantor, others will not hesitate to fill the void. Russia, already entrenched in Syria and Libya, has deepened military ties with Algeria and Egypt. China, through its Belt and Road Initiative, has invested billions in Gulf infrastructure and energy. India, with its growing diaspora and trade links, is quietly expanding its influence.
The Arab world is not short of suitors. But the strategic cost of replacing Western alignment with multipolar ambiguity could be profound. The region’s fragile economies, volatile politics, and unresolved conflicts require not just investment, but stability. And stability requires trust—something that was severely eroded when missiles fell on Doha.
A Moment of Reckoning
The Israeli strike on Doha is more than a military operation—it is a strategic earthquake. It has exposed the fragility of the Abraham Accords, the limits of Western influence, and the enduring power of the Arab street. It has forced Arab leaders to confront a new reality: one in which their domestic legitimacy and regional alliances are under pressure. If the US does not recalibrate its approach, and if Arab states believe that the old security guarantees no longer apply, it will not take long for Russia, China, and India to step in. The Doha summit, convened in the wake of the attack, may be the last chance to restore a sense of order. But time is running out—and the region is watching how committed western leaders are to the region.
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