Entry 14: Starmer’s Shifting Ground: Domestic Peril, AI Gambles, and the Trump Finale

Sir Keir Starmer once mocked the Conservative carousel of reshuffles, where ministers were tossed from housing to prisons to Africa before they’d even learned the names of their civil servants.

But now, the reshuffle blade has swung through Labour’s own ranks, and it cuts deeper than before. Starmer’s own reshuffle is worse than the Tories’ — David Lammy, who had just begun to build bridges abroad, is replaced by Yvette Cooper, untested in foreign policy. Ministers who had mastered AI or welfare are uprooted mid-season, their hard-won knowledge left to wilt.

Paralysed by caution

Unlike Cameron, who cleared the table for new faces, Starmer merely rearranges the same cards. Ten secretaries of state moved, but only one was sent packing. Twenty junior ministers shuffled like a nervous gambler unwilling to raise or fold. The result? A government paralysed by its own caution. But the problem isn’t just personnel. It’s the ground itself — the parties, whips, and electoral systems that reward short-termism and punish bold reform. Ministers are gardeners with borrowed tools, planting seeds they’ll never see bloom.

Change requires revolution

Real change demands constitutional revolution. Empower the mayors of Manchester and Birmingham. Adopt New Zealand’s electoral balance. Make voting compulsory, as in Australia. Let citizens’ assemblies bloom, as they did in Ireland. These are the tools of a government that listens, not just governs. Labour’s first year has been spent wooing investors — deregulating, fast-tracking AI, and cutting red tape. But the summit last autumn drew firms like BlackRock and Macquarie, whose legacies include debt-laden utilities and opaque deals. Growth must be cultivated, not bought through sovereign surfeit — for when governments trade control for capital, they risk becoming stewards of someone else’s harvest.

Outsourcing Britain’s AI soul?

The £31bn pledged by US tech giants — OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google — risks outsourcing Britain’s AI soul. Scrapping the digital services tax signals surrender. Are we building British AI, or laying out Silicon Valley’s welcome mat? Labour must demand more: limits on share buybacks, better working conditions, and real investment. The UK ranks 28th in the OECD for business investment. For growth, Starmmer needs AI firms to plant roots, not just harvest profits.

The Oxford/AstraZeneca model showed what’s possible — public goals, shared knowledge, fair pricing. Labour must steer AI markets, not simply open them. The BBC licence fee could inspire a public funding model for AI — one that serves people, not platforms. Unfettered AI adoption risks repeating the mistakes of globalisation. When tech deals bloom but local jobs don’t, resentment grows. Smart governance means worker voices, public stakes, and visible community benefits.

Will the Macron strategy work?

The peril for Starmer is not just the reshuffle chaos or the AI gamble. It is the deeper question of whether a Labour prime minister can survive the full term while balancing the demands of corporations, investors, and an unpredictable ally across the Atlantic. Many see this as a rightward drift — a Macron strategy — those risks alienating the very base that brought Labour to power. The ground is stirred, yes, but whether it will yield fruit or weeds remains to be seen.

Pomp and Pagentry

Then came the state visit. Starmer’s courtship of Donald Trump yielded softened tariffs and £150bn in investment. But the deals are stitched from pre-existing plans, and the steel levy remains a thorn. The prime minister needs a growth story — but is this one built on sand? Microsoft and Nvidia promise AI infrastructure. Palantir wins defence contracts. Nuclear tie-ups with Centrica and Rolls-Royce hint at future power. But most are still memorandums — sketches, not structures.

The 25% steel tariff remains. It’s less than others face, but still a burden. Sam Lowe warns: even Trump’s friends don’t get everything. Gareth Stace sees a world of trade barriers rising like flood defences. Blackstone pledges £100bn — but the figure includes debt and lending. It’s a headline, not a harvest. The firm’s UK assets already total £79bn. Much of this was likely to happen anyway. A promised UK-US crypto pact fizzled. Meetings were held, hopes raised, but no announcement came. The moment passed like mist over Westminster.

Starmer survived the rollercoaster of Trump’s visit. Even the Epstein question was smothered. Trump’s disagreements were softened, his praise ladled generously. But the caveat with Trump is always: you never know. The visit gave Britain face time with the president — a chance to state its case. Starmer succeeded in that. But persuasion? That remains elusive. And in the ground of British politics, it’s the hardest crop to grow.

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