Entry 17: The Broker and the Stage: Trust, Power, and Peace

There’s a moment in the life of every actor and showman when the applause fades, the spotlight dims, and the stage must be left to others. Some exit gracefully, bowing to history. Others linger, mistaking legacy for relevance. Tony Blair, it seems, has chosen the latter — not with theatrical flair, but with the quiet persistence of a man who believes the world still needs his lines.

Fragile Movements

In the shifting sands of Middle Eastern diplomacy, the selection of a peace broker is no small matter. It is not merely a question of credentials, but of trust — a currency more fragile than oil and more elusive than peace itself. With the Arab world increasingly turning its gaze eastward — toward Beijing, toward Moscow, toward regional alliances that speak a different language of power — the West’s influence wanes. And into this vacuum steps Blair, again.

Mythology of The Peacemaker

To the casual observer, his re-entry might seem logical. After all, he is often credited with helping bring peace to Northern Ireland. But history, when properly dusted off, tells a more nuanced tale. The groundwork was laid by John Major, and the peace was brokered not by one man, but by the collective exhaustion of a people from the north and the south of the island of Ireland who were weary of war. Blair’s role, while notable, was not singular. Yet it is this version — the mythologised one — that has been traded on in boardrooms and backchannels from Ramallah to Riyadh.

The Challenge of Commercial Interests

The difficulty lies not only in the myth, but in the machinery behind it. Blair’s institute, a web of consultancies and contracts, has become a vessel for influence that is neither wholly diplomatic nor entirely commercial. His dealings — often opaque, sometimes controversial — raise questions about motive. Is this about peace, or is it about positioning? About legacy, or leverage?

The Dilemma for Arab Governments

Arab governments, already cautious, now face a dilemma. To endorse Blair is to risk alienating domestic civilian populations and regional partners who view Western intervention with increasing scepticism. While Pan-Arabism has evolved into a cultural rather than political force. The Gen Z of the Arab Street, many of whom were too young for the Western intervention in Iraq, to which Blair is bound, are sceptical of U.S. militarism and reject American exceptionalism, preferring diplomacy and internal reform over foreign intervention.

Domestically within the region, it is this group on whom Arab and Muslim governments are focused. They are the future of the region, and are overwhelmingly sympathetic to Palestinians, which is evidenced by over #FreePalestine has 31 billion posts on TikTok. Internationally risk for the governments that attended the meeting with Trump at the UN is that the rejection of Blair might appear obstructionist in a moment when the world craves resolution. On the other hand, they must also be suspicious and wonder why it is they who need to take the risk in backing the Trump-nominated Blair, when the president’s track record in keeping agreements or finding peace is elusive and under scrutiny.

And yet, the deeper concern is not about Blair himself, but about what his selection represents: a failure to understand that the stage has changed, and the actors must too.

Can Starmer Afford the Risk?

It is not only in Riyadh or Ramallah that Blair’s shadow looms large. In Westminster, too, his presence is a quiet menace. For Keir Starmer, already managing his domestic gambles and navigating accusations of cronyism and the spectral ties between Peter Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein, the re-emergence of Blair is less a legacy than a liability. With an election approaching — one where inequality, values, and trust will be the currency of victory — the question is not whether Blair can broker peace abroad, but whether Starmer can afford the risk of his proximity at home.

Frayed Alliances Diminished Influence

The geopolitical terrain is no longer what it was. The U.S., once omnipresent, now finds itself absent from key summits — the SCO, for instance, where China, Russia, and India quietly redrew the energy map. Trump's tariffs and unilateralism have frayed old alliances, and NATO’s defence spending boom has shifted priorities from diplomacy to militarisation. In this new order, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s mutual defence pact sends a clear signal: the region is aligning eastward, and the West must reckon with its declining influence.

Symptom Of an Unsure West

Against this backdrop, Blair’s return feels less like a solution and more like a symptom of a West unsure of its role, of a man unsure of his exit. Trust, once earned through leadership, is now bartered through influence. And in the Middle East, where memory is long and patience short, the choice of a peace broker must be more than symbolic. It must be strategic, sensitive, and accepted.

Perhaps it is time, gently, to ask whether Blair’s continued presence is helping or hindering. Whether the applause he hears is real or merely the echo of a past performance. And whether, in the delicate theatre of peace, the most dignified act is knowing when to leave the stage.

To persist with Blair is to risk repeating what Edward Said warned of: “From the beginning of Western speculation about the Orient, the one thing the Orient could not do was to represent itself. Evidence of the Orient was credible only after it had passed through and been made firm by the refining fire of the Orientalist’s work.”

In this light, Blair’s reappearance is not just a diplomatic gamble — it is an error of judgment. Not only for Arab governments, but for Keir Starmer, whose own leadership is already fraying. With an election looming, and trust the rarest currency of all, can Labour afford the risk of a man who no longer knows when to exit?

Sometimes, the most strategic move is not to speak louder — but to step quietly aside.

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